10.20.10 - China Increased Interest Rates

중국 기준금리 전격인상, G20 회의 앞두고 미국에 ''직격탄''

2010-10-20 오후 12:45:28 게재

미국과 중국(G2)의 환율전쟁이 격화되고 있는 와중에 중국이 기준금리인상을 전격 단행, 미국주도로 ‘저달러 인플레이션’으로 흐르던 글로벌 경제의 방향타를 바꿔놓았다.
▶관련기사 8,11면
중국 금리인상 카드는 곧바로 미국시장에 직격탄으로 작용했다. 미국 달러 가치가 급등하고 뉴욕증시의 주가와 유가, 금값 및 상품가격이 급락하는 등 충격에 휩싸였다.
중국이 금리인상을 단행한 시기도 절묘했다는 분석이다. 중국공산당 17기 중앙위원회 5차 전체회의 폐막 하루 뒤인 데다 G20 서울 정상회의를 앞둔 시점이기 때문이다. G20 서울 정상회의는 미국이 중국을 겨냥, 위안화 절상 압박 수위를 높이면서 미·중간 ‘환율전쟁터’가 될 것으로 예견돼왔다.
중국은 공산당 5차 전체회의를 통해 경제성장률 목표치를 7~7.5%대로 하향조정해 ‘단순히 성장률을 높이기보다는 지속가능한 성장을 이어가겠다’는 의중을 반영했다. 인플레이션(물가상승)을 억제하고 안정성장을 유도하기 위해 미국발 금융위기 이후 최초로 본격적인 출구전략(시중에 과도하게 풀린 돈을 흡수하는 조치)을 시작한 것이라는 분석이다.
중국은 미국이 취한 양적완화(달러를 더 풀어 경기를 부양하는 조치)와는 정반대인 국내 금리인상 조치를 선제적으로 단행하면서 미국을 견제, G2간 환율전쟁과 G20체제 이후 글로벌 경제에 대한 영향력을 선점한 것으로 풀이되고 있다.
서브프라임 모기지 사태로 글로벌 금융위기를 불러온 미국은 그동안 자국의 어려운 상황을 타개하기 위해 확장적 재정정책과 통화정책을 사용하고도 효과가 미진하자 수출을 늘리고 수입을 줄이기 위해 중국을 상대로 환율전쟁을 촉발해 왔다. 기축통화의 담당자로 전세계 이익을 고려한 정책보다는 미국의 위기를 글로벌 경제에 전가시키면서 자국의 이익을 추구하는 쪽으로 방향을 잡은 것이다. 최대 희생양은 한국을 비롯 아시아 경제다. 최근 아시아 국가들은 선진국 자금이 홍수처럼 밀려들면서 몸살을 앓고 있다.
미국의 양적완화 정책은 달러 남발을 부추기면서 기축통화의 신뢰를 무너뜨리고 글로벌 인플레이션을 촉발할 수밖에 없다. 이럴 경우 한국을 비롯 각국이 보유한 미국의 국채가치는 떨어지고 하락분만큼 미국은 일종의 인플레이션 세금(inflation tax)을 거둬가는 셈이 된다.
중국의 금리인상조치는 미국의 11월 중간선거에도 영향을 미칠 전망이다.
오바마 대통령은 미국 중간선거를 의식, 중국의 위안화 절상 이슈를 들고 나오면서 달러의 평가절하를 통한 자국 수출 증대와 일자리 창출을 공약으로 내걸었다.
그러나 중국이 미국의 압력에 떠밀려 위안화를 절상하는 것보다 금리인상을 통해 국내 물가를 잡으면서 자연스럽게 위안화도 소폭 절상되도록 하는 모양새를 취했다. 이에따라 중국을 상대로 환율전쟁을 촉발한 ‘오바마-버냉키 전략’의 효과가 떨어지고 그 파장은 미국 중간선거에 부정적 영향을 줄 수도 있다는 분석이 나오고 있다.
유병규 현대경제연구원 상무는 “중국의 긴축은 세계경제를 조절해가는 것이고 중장기적으로 중국경제가 안정되는 것이 한국경제나 세계경제에 도움이 된다”고 전망했다.
안찬수 김상범 김형선 기자 khaein@naeil.com
Copyright ⓒThe Naeil News. All rights reserved.

10.18.10 - 失意泰然

실의태연- 실의에 빠졌을 때 태연하게 행동하라.

This is one of the six well-wishing remarks that Kyungjoo Lee Family kept for their people. It means "Live as usual even when you live in despair." There are five more, but this one has been helping me more than other words.

Inner strength. Keep it calm and peaceful.

10.08.10 - Job Trends

Disappearing Jobs

by Cindy Perman
Friday, October 8, 2010

Overall U.S. employment is expected to go up 10 percent in the next decade, but there are some professions that are actually expected to see their ranks shrink.
The reasons vary -- everything from outsourcing to technology to the economy.
As high school seniors start scouting colleges and thinking about what they want to be when they grow up, it's a good idea to zoom out and take a look at the broader jobs landscape -- what the fastest-growing jobs are and what jobs may be disappearing, what they pay -- and what are some of the alternatives for a degree in that field.
Before students, their parents or their student aid drop $30,000 to $100,000 or more on college, it's important to think about what that investment will buy you: a job with good prospects, or a ticket to the unemployment line?

You would spend time researching a major purchase like a house or car -- and it's even more important to research your career. You know, the thing that will actually pay for the house, car and other lifestyle choices.
Here are disappearing jobs for those with bachelor's degrees, according to the Labor Department:

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Reporters and Correspondents
Employed in U.S.: 61,600
Change expected in next decade: -8%
Average salary: $34,850
Consolidation and convergence are the top reasons the news industry is shrinking. News outlets are increasingly sharing each other's content, which means they need fewer reporters and correspondents.
The news business gets hit particularly hard during economic downturns as most revenue comes from advertising, and companies spend less on advertising during a slump. Improving technology is one bright light, which could drive some employment in online or mobile divisions.
Competition is expected to be intense for jobs at large and national newspapers, broadcast stations and magazines. The best opportunities are expected to be with smaller, local news outlets as well as for online news organizations, as technology generates demand for online reporters or mobile news units. Writers who can handle scientific or technical subjects will have an advantage.

For those just starting out, there are more opportunities for freelance work than full-time. Plus, it's a big advantage to have a joint degree with journalism and an area of specialty such as politics, economics or biology, rather than a single degree in journalism.
As an alternative, journalism graduates are qualified for the related fields of advertising, public relations or corporate communications, which tend to pay better.

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Insurance Underwriters
Employed in U.S.: 103,000
Change expected in next decade: -4%
Average salary: $56,790
Technology is the main reason that the need for insurance underwriters, the people who decide if insurance will be provided and under what terms, is shrinking as the Internet and increased use of automated underwriting software boosts worker productivity.
The Internet links databases and makes information used by the underwriters more accessible and the software helps them sort through it more quickly and determine whether an application for insurance should be accepted or denied.
While the industry is expected to shrink, there will still be opportunities because of a high turnover rate and as insurance carriers try to return to profitability. Growth in long-term care insurance, a relatively new type of insurance being offered, may also offer opportunities for underwriters.
Job opportunities are expected to be best for those with strong computer skills in addition to a background in finance.

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Computer Programmers
Employed in U.S.: 426,700
Change expected in next decade: -3%
Average salary: $69,620
While computer software engineers, the guys who write the software, are projected to be among the fastest-growing jobs, rising 32 percent over the next 10 years, demand for computer programmers, the guys who write the instructions for a computer to use that software, is expected to shrink 3 percent in the next decade.
The reason is twofold: The growing ability for users to write and implement their own programs, as well as outsourcing the task of computer programming.
This is one of the few cases where it hurts you to be in the digital field: Because your work is digital, you can do it from anywhere in the world. Plus, the work of computer programmers requires little localized or specialized knowledge. All you have to know is the computer language.
It's also one of the few cases where a weak economy is helpful: Some companies are hiring programmers in the U.S. in areas that were particularly hard hit by the recession.

Opportunities will be the best for those who know multiple programming languages and tools. But, it's crucial to stay on top of the latest trends and tools in order to remain competitive. Getting training and certifications can also provide a competitive advantage.

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Judges
Employed in U.S.: 26,900
Change expected in next decade: -3%
Average salary: $110,220
It seems counterintuitive that we're increasingly becoming a lawsuit-happy nation and yet, the need for judges is shrinking. The reason is simple: Budget. From the federal government on down to states, cities and towns, cash-strapped governments are slashing their budgets.
Making it even more difficult to land a position as a judge is competition. There are a ton of people who apply for these jobs due to the prestige associated with them and the turnover rate is low. And, with the costs of going to court so high, more parties involved in disputes are opting for out-of-court arbitration.
On the plus side, demographic shifts will actually help demand for judges as more immigrants migrate to the U.S., creating the need for more judges to deal with all the paperwork, and as the population ages, creating a need for legal review of elder-care issues.
As an alternative, many candidates for judgeships opt to go into the private sector, where the pay is significantly higher.

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Chemical Engineers
Employed in U.S.: 31,700
Change expected in next decade: -2%
Average salary: $84,680
Demand for engineers overall is good, with some specialties expected to see outstanding growth, but demand for chemical engineers, who work in the manufacturing of chemicals and products such as gasoline, synthetic rubber, plastics and cement, is expected to drop 2 percent in the next decade.
The biggest demand in engineering will be for biomedical engineers, with projected growth of 72 percent over the next decade, as well as civil, environmental and petroleum engineers.
The reason some areas are seeing a decline again comes down to money: Cutbacks in defense expenditures have crimped demand in industries such as electronics and aerospace. Plus, there is an increasing trend toward contracting engineers instead of hiring them full time, as well as outsourcing work to English-speaking engineers outside the U.S., who are often willing to work for lower wages.
In order to remain competitive, it's imperative for engineers, like computer programmers, to stay on top of the latest technology and trends.

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Advertising and Promotions Managers
Employed in U.S.: 44,600
Change expected in next decade: -2%
Average salary: $80,220
Overall employment in advertising, marketing, promotions and PR is expected to jump 13 percent in the next decade, but for those who direct a firm's ad campaigns and promotions aimed at driving sales, prospects are expected to drop by 2 percent.
The drop is largely due to the economy -- and the changing landscape of the media business. Advertising and promotions are also subject to demand in the industries they're promoting, so if an industry is hard hit by the economic slump, it will take a toll on the advertising and promotions managers that work with it.
The advertising industry is changing rapidly as the media and Internet landscape changes, making it crucial for advertising and promotions managers to be flexible and creative in harnessing new methods of promoting products.
Job opportunities will be greatest for those with a high level of creativity, plus strong communications and computer skills, and those who quickly adapt to new media such as the Internet and social media.

10.02.10 - Insomnia

I have suffered from an insomnia. I have tried staying up all night and walking hard during the day  in order to sleep on time. Nothing really helped me. Yesterday, I bought a bottle of pillow mist from the Bath & Bed. One of my friends tried it, and she was quite happy about it. But, then, there was a party going on last night. I put my i-Pod shuffle and played peaceful music on. However, some people knocked on the door and ran off in the 6 am when I managed to fall in sleep. I am still tired, and the party is still on.

I remembered I was happy when I had a series of music coming from the out-door cafe during my stay in Heidelberg. The songs every night were calm, but somewhat uplifting. I took them as my lullaby. The people have been playing the music since last night and it is cheerful. I cannot help thinking what makes them different. My mind in a traveling mode? My nervousness about many things and plans in my life? There is a word for this; Everything depends on the way you look at things.  Not just music, but everything that I am doing. 

What you get from a $14/hour overseas worker

What you get from a $14/hour overseas worker

By Marcia Turner, contributing writerAugust 23, 2010: 9:21 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- I have always had trouble delegating. Even as a manager in corporate America, I had a tendency to do all my work myself -- everything from scheduling meetings, to reserving conference rooms, to ordering lunch for guests and sending faxes. I was convinced I was the best person to complete these tasks.
That tendency continued when I started my own marketing agency and hired a couple of interns. Rarely could they get the work done as quickly or as thoroughly as I could, so, too often, I kept it for myself.


As you might expect with only one person working at capacity -- me -- my firm quickly hit a revenue ceiling. Everything I was able to do myself, I did. It was only when I encountered a need for a website, which I had no idea how to design and create, that I was forced hand over a key task.
And after witnessing how much could be done by someone else, I did a complete about-face. I began looking for opportunities to delegate and outsource.

Buoyed by Tim Ferriss' recommendation of low-cost help in his bestselling The 4-Hour Workweek, I turned to Brickwork India, in Bangalore, for some market research. I wanted to know how large a particular industry was to help me determine if it was worth targeting. But since this was a not yet a revenue-generating concern, I also wanted to keep my costs as low as possible. Hiring Bain or the Boston Consulting Group was not an option.

I have a virtual assistant in Texas (I'm in New York) who handles much of my Web work, at $50 an hour, but this project required a different skill-set. I had already spent a few hours of my time conducting my own top-line investigation and came up short. So when Ferriss indicated that Brickwork charges as little as $15 an hour, I decided to test them out.

I went to the company's website and completed an initial Request for Information form identifying myself and the specific tasks I needed a Brickwork analyst to perform. Based on that input, I received a quote for a block of 10 hours of work in the next 30 days. The cost was $140. Total. I was more than willing to risk $14 an hour on this experiment.

The next step was setting up my Brickwork account, which took a matter of minutes, and paying the $140 via credit card. I received an introductory e-mail from my senior executive assistant the next afternoon, the start of their work day. I would have liked to have been able to request a particular worker, since a colleague had recommended a talented researcher there, but there was no opportunity to request anyone specific during the sign-up.

Unsure of whether I should immediately hand off this important research project, I started with a softball task -- compile a list of associations and organizations for writers in the U.S. Within a matter of hours, I had a spreadsheet listing 15 such organizations, their corresponding locations and number of members. Given that I could rattle off close to a dozen writers' associations off the top of my head, I was a bit disappointed it took my executive assistant two hours to come up with 15. I was fairly certain there were more, but the information I received was well-organized.

So I forged ahead and with eight hours remaining on my credit I asked for help in finding the size of the ghostwriting industry. Mindful that more than eight hours could be spent with little to show for it, I set a cap of two hours. Those two hours were quickly gone and, in exchange, I received a list of four small companies that compete in that market. Not exactly what I was after. And then there were six hours left.

We spent some time going back and forth, as I tried to clarify exactly what I needed while also trying to assess whether there was any chance I would actually get it. Looking back, I should have picked up the phone and spent five minute making sure my assistant truly understood what I wanted, but e-mail was so much more convenient; I had her phone number but didn't use it.

From the tasks I assigned and the deliverables I received, it slowly became clear that Brickwork was awesome at tracking down information with a single known value. For example, if you wanted to know how many babies were born last year worldwide, I'm sure my executive assistant could have found that fact. But ask for information that requires some primary research or deductive reasoning and you'll burn through several hours just explaining what you're after, information-wise. Alas, my industry research task falls into the latter category.

At such a low hourly rate and with the flexibility to hire a Brickworker on a whim, I will certainly turn to them for administrative help in the future. But only when the data I need is well-defined and finite. 

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I have learned that outsourcing is surely an effective and efficient option for many corporations. When outsourcing, companies can lower the cost but increase the efficiency and quality of the process by leaving the work to expert companies.

The author talks about research and administrative work by Brickwork India. Brickwork is an outsourcing company for individuals and small to mid-sized companies that look for business assistance at an affordable price. The company is very proud of their work and having thousands of clients "across industries and across geography", referring from Brickwork India web. It is amazing to see how people and business act fast by utilizing the internet. The internet has allowed companies to find better business solutions and connect with partners in other side of the earth.




On the other hand, it takes job opportunities away from domestic labors. Even though companies have every reason to hire outsourcing companies in countries having lower labor cost, it contributes to decrease jobs domestically. 

Should a company choose low cost and efficiency? Or does it have to take a responsibility for domestic economy and provide more jobs? It remains debatable.

Gov’t faces U.S.-Iran conundrum - INSIDE JoongAng Daily

Gov’t faces U.S.-Iran conundrum - INSIDE JoongAng Daily

August 21, 2010

The Korean government will soon start talks with the United States and Iran over sanctions against the Middle Eastern nation, as Seoul finds itself torn between its obligation to its ally and its energy interests and large business contracts in Iran.

After a cabinet meeting at the Blue House, the government concluded there is a need for close talks with the two countries before participating in U.S.-led sanctions, a senior government official said yesterday.

“We’ve discussed a range of alternatives on how to approach the Iran issue and decided to talk to the U.S. and Iran in the near future,” he said.

The U.S. government announced late last week the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions Act, a list of disciplinary actions banning foreign multinationals from trading with Iran.

The government is considering sending delegations or formal letters to the U.S. and Iran. The timing of the moves, he said, hasn’t been decided.

He also said nothing has been decided over what kinds of sanctions Korea would apply to Iran. The Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) reviewed potential irregularities at the Seoul branch of Bank Mellat but the official tried to avoid speaking in detail about the level of sanctions Korea would accept.

An official at the FSS said the issue will likely be discussed in a regular meeting next month. Bank Mellat has reportedly traded with other Iranian banks and companies blacklisted by the U.S. government without getting an approval from the Bank of Korea, which is in violation of foreign exchange laws.

As to potential damage the sanctions could deal to local companies, the official said, “The damages are mostly related to financial transactions and we are in talks over how we can help them.”

Local exporters and oil importers are having trouble making banking transactions as local banks already stopped trades with Iranian banks. Korea relied on Iran for 9.5 percent of its annual oil consumption as of last year. Around 20 local companies exported $4 billion worth of goods to Iran last year.

“We will express our concerns while in talks with the U.S. and try to minimize damages to Korean companies,” the official said.

International sanctions are being strengthened against Iran. The Swiss government has frozen 1.5 million Swiss Franc ($1.4 million) in Iran-related accounts in Swiss banks.

By Limb Jae-un [jbiz91@joongang.co.kr]

Five 'new normals' that really will stick

 
By Nin-Hai Tseng, reporterAugust 20, 2010: 1:13 PM ET

FORTUNE -- Whenever we go through a major change in our culture, it seems we have to adjust to 'the new normal.' And today is no exception -- as the U.S. economy struggles to recover from the financial crisis, Americans are being forced to reckon with more 'new normals' than we'd like.
Of course, we adapted to 'new normals' long before the phrase became cliché. According to a Factiva search, one of the earliest references came in a Newsday article in 1988, in which 'the new normal' referred to the realities of single parent households and the need for more government-funded childcare. After September 11, 2001, the 'new normal' referred to the vulnerability of a nation changed.


Today it's everywhere. A search for the phrase on the New York Times web site yielded 11 results in just the past five days.
It's not easy to change Americans' financial habits permanently, and 'new normals' don't always last. Fortune found five that just might stick, at least for a while.

Long-term unemployment
With the jobless rate standing stubbornly close to 10%, it's tough not to wonder if high unemployment could be a long-term fixture of the American economy. With little to no hiring in the private sector, it almost seems like the only new jobs out there are -- well, devoting the day to finding a job. The Obama administration has been speaking out against joblessness as the 'new normal,' saying the problem is cyclical.
Economists predict that unemployment will drop to 8.7% by end of next year, and by 2013, it will fall to 6.8%. Even if the predictions pan out, that's no easy target. A University of Maryland business professor this month told The New York Times that the economy would have to add 300,000 more workers a month over the next three years to get the jobless rate to fall to the administration's 2013 target. Earlier this year, when the economy made a brief comeback by growing at a healthy 3%, it added fewer than 100,000 jobs a month. When the jobless rate will return to pre-recession levels of about 4.6% (as it was January 2007) remains to be seen.

Renting over owning
Buying a home may never be the promising investment it was before the crisis hit. Gone are the days of looking at a lovely Cape Cod and seeing an instant piggy bank.
Between 2006 and 2009, home prices fell more than 32%, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. And just when it looks like the gravely weak housing market is beginning to stabilize, we hear more bad news. In its latest monthly report released July 27, Case-Shiller warned that a broader look at home prices over the past year haven't shown sustained recovery, even though the index surprisingly bumped 5% compared with May 2009.
Meanwhile, it appears keeping up with the Jones' no longer means having a mortgage. The idea of renting is okay, and in many cases, preferred. Between 2004 and 2009, the number of renter households rose nearly 10% or by 3.4 million, according to a 2010 study of the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The rise of the renting class might be here to stay.

Saving over spending
If paying down debt and saving more is the 'new normal,' this might not be such a bad thing, at least in the long-term. Americans overspent for too long, and that's largely what got us into this financial mess.
In June, credit card balances fell by $4.5 billion, or 6%, according to the Federal Reserve, marking the 21st consecutive month of declining balances. Meanwhile, personal savings have risen to 6.4% of after-tax incomes, about three times higher than it was in 2007.
Of course, all this saving isn't exactly helping our economy in the near term. But if we're more responsible spenders after we emerge from this economic malaise, we'll save ourselves some more pain in the future.

Staycations over vacations
With high unemployment and a preference for saving more as possible mainstays of the U.S. economy, more of us are also likely to vacation closer to home. Though some consumers are expected to travel more this summer than last year, when the staycation officially became a trend, many are driving instead of flying and they're also spending less on whatever trips they do take. But more are opting to stay home entirely. In a USA Today/Gallup Poll released in May, 27% say they plan to travel less this summer than last, compared with 18% who say they'll travel more. More than one-third do not see much change in their travel plans.

Higher taxes for 'the rich'
Depending on whether or not President Obama has his way, the nation's top earners (what some might call 'richest') could see higher taxes as the 'new normal.' In an effort to reverse the huge tax breaks enacted under the George W. Bush administration, Obama's plan would mean people making more than $195,550 in taxable income and joint filers with taxable income of more than $237,300 would be pushed up into higher tax brackets, from the current 33% and 35% brackets to 36% and 36.9% brackets next year.
While some argue this could further hamper an already weak economy, others say this new normal could also help reduce the country's huge budget deficit. Perhaps this new normal isn't so much about higher costs for the so-called rich but rather an equalization of the nation's tax structure. 

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I had a chance to attend in Harvard Projects for Asian and International Relations in 2009. Even though it was difficult to predict how the economic crisis will turn out at the time, some scholars expected that the world economy including US will recover by 2011 to 2013. It was rather positive compared to what people are given now, "New Normals."

After HPAIR in 2009, many things have affected the world economy such as 2010 European sovereign debt crisis. As not many people expected that European crisis was about to happen, even a year before it hit the world, I am not positive that one can give a concrete image regarding society and economy of next five years.